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Monday 24th of November 2003
ANZ Investment Bank today launched the Crystal Credit Quality Index, the first Australian and New Zealand index that measures credit quality quantitatively. Crystal provides an alternative benchmark of credit quality for investors and issuers, which can indicate positive/negative movements in credit quality earlier than the more traditional measures. The launch follows a successful introduction of the model to New Zealand fund managers in August this year. New Zealand names included in the index are Telecom New Zealand and Contact Energy. Kate Birchall, Head of Credit Research at ANZ Investment Bank, said """the credit quality of all the New Zealand names, as measured by our Crystal model, has strengthened during 2003. In particular, Telecom New Zealand has been one of the stronger credit improvement stories.""'
Credit quality is measured by a ""?Distance to Default""' (DD)* score. The higher the DD score, the stronger a company""'s credit quality. Since November 2001 the Distance to Default for TCNZ has jumped to 6.03 from 3.71. The overall improvement in credit quality is in contrast to the trend observed by the credit ratings agencies, which have reported """continued deterioration""" of Australian and New Zealand credits. The Crystal index includes all the 100 plus domestic and offshore (listed) companies that have A$, Australian-governed debt currently outstanding. It has been backdated to November 2001 and will be updated on the first trading day of each month. The index will incorporate a ""?headline""' number as well as sector indices (for example, financials, autos). The index values will be distributed though Bloomberg, Dow Jones and Reuters, starting from 1 December. Local institutional investors will be attending a series of Crystal road shows on December 1 and 2 in Auckland and Wellington.
For further information contact: Kate Birchall Head of Credit Research +61 2 9227 1142
Note to editors 1. Crystal is a quantitative measure of corporate credit quality based on the Merton theory, which links the equity and debt markets in such a way that credit quality
measures can extracted from movements in the share market. 2. The index was developed by ANZ Investment Bank""'s credit research team to provide a mathematical benchmark that can give an early warning alert to improvements/declines in credit quality. 3. To measure credit quality, Crystal uses equity value, equity volatility and total liability data, all sourced from published data provided by third parties. Transparency of the model is guaranteed as inputs are not subject to manipulation or ""?smoothing""'. 4. *Credit quality is represented by a ""?Distance to Default""' (DD) measurement (assets minus default point). A DD score approaching 0 is a sign of weakening credit quality.
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