While a new year is already underway, it is early days. This makes it still a timely point to wheel out the crystal ball and engage in the well-established tradition of making big-picture predictions on developments and factors that will shape markets and investment portfolios in the year ahead.

November was a very strong month for most equity markets.

Around six weeks ago we made the case for a 0.75% cut at each of the two final RBNZ meetings of the year. This was a non-consensus call. In the end, the central bank cut rates by 0.50% last month, but expectations following October’s CPI number started to shift in terms of what will happen at this week’s meeting.

Last week the RBNZ came through with a “super-sized” rate cut of 0.5% that many economists proclaimed they had predicted. The move was not exactly a huge call given the state of the economy. Another 25bps was arguably an option, and investors took heart that the cut was larger. A more aggressive central provides a prospective tailwind for exporters. Falling interest rates significantly boost the appeal of high dividend companies.

The deluge of results on both sides of the Tasman provided a host of contrasts, and highlighted the importance of being highly selective and discerning when it comes to active investing strategies.

The RBNZ has “cut to the chase” with the first rate cut in over 4 years. Is this cause for celebration and what does this mean for the NZ economy and stock market?

June saw a continuation of this year’s themes, with US equity markets continuing their 20-month bull run, led by the technology sector, and AI-related names in particular.

It certainly has been a rollercoaster ride for the economy and markets over the past four years.

It is no secret that the airline industry has faced a turbulent time in recent years, with participants halted for long periods during the pandemic, and making large losses.

Globally, March was a robust month for markets.

Globally, most stock markets have made a strong start to the year, Leading the way has been the US indices, with the S&P500 rallying 3.3% in January, making new record highs, as did the Dow Jones which went through 38,000 for the first time ever.

Equity markets are through the first month of 2024 and have largely started off the year where they finished 2023 – on the front foot. How will the rest of the year play out? We outline our projections for the remaining 11 months ahead.

The early promise of November (that was a feature of last month’s article) played out in earnest as stock markets had their best month in a long time, and in some cases years.

Good things come to those that wait – after a challenging few months, stock markets have started November brightly. With inflation getting under control, many central banks cooling their jets, and bond yields easing, are equity markets in for a strong end to 2023?

After a challenging September, and subdued start to October, are markets still in for a seasonally stronger final quarter of 2023? Inflation has fallen sharply in the US and Europe, while there may also be some locally driven tailwinds for the kiwi market.

The last few six weeks or so have been a contrasting period for markets with concerns over global economic growth, the persistence of inflation, and central bank tightening largely easing the more as time has worn on. The earnings season in the Northern Hemisphere finished up largely positive, while that down under was somewhat disparate.