In early April, the US announced more aggressive than expected increases in import tariffs, which incorporate a reciprocal tariff programme with a minimum 10% on all countries, including Australia and New Zealand.

The US economy may finally be starting to crack. Business surveys suggest the services sector is now contracting and real-time measures of Q1 GDP suggest the economy is in retreat. Retail sales were unexpectedly weak, and consumer confidence has dropped. The housing market is also showing signs of strain with both housing starts and sales dropping.

The Fed is in no hurry to cut rates as the US economy continues to grow above trend and inflation progress to target has stalled. At the January meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell described the policy rate as “very well calibrated”, acknowledging it was “meaningfully above neutral” and wanting to see further progress on inflation.

December saw mixed market movements influenced by currency shifts, central bank actions, and economic trends, shaping the investment outlook for the months ahead.

“The only thing worse than a very profitable banking system is a very unprofitable banking system.” Jonathan Mott, 2010, from his presentation to the Australian Senate Economic References Committee inquiry into Competition within the Australian banking sector

Touch wood, but 2023 has probably turned out better than many expected. At the end of 2022, there was a strong consensus that a recession was on the cards in the world’s largest economy, the US, and that inflation will prove extremely hard to rein in.

The Harbour Investment Outlook summarises recent market developments, what we are monitoring closely and our key views on the outlook for fixed income and equity markets.

The Harbour Investment Outlook summarises recent market developments, what we are monitoring closely and our key views on the outlook for fixed income and equity markets.

At the end of last year Chris Di Leva, Portfolio Manager and Multi Asset Specialist, and Hamish Pepper, Fixed Income & Currency Strategist, sat down to mull over the approaching risks and opportunities for 2023. Now, with six somewhat 'uneventful' months of the year under our belts, they have taken the time to pause, reflect and discuss what may lie ahead.

The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on businesses and the economy has been profound, leading to a notable surge in the value of select information technology companies. Harbour Investment Analyst discusses the AI frenzy and other key market developments for the month.

Chris Di Leva, Portfolio Manager and Multi Asset Specialist at Harbour Asset Management shares key insights into recent market developments and what to watch.

The Harbour Investment Outlook summarises recent market developments, what we are monitoring closely and our key views on the outlook for fixed income and equity markets.