ANZ forecasting higher OCR than Reserve Bank predictions
ANZ Bank says it is expecting a 75 basis point OCR hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand next month, a 50 bp increase in April and a 25bp rise in May as part of a year-long recession it is engineering.
The risks around its cash rate call are “clearly on the downside now the November monetary policy statement (MPS) caused such a double take, the bank says.
Not only does the bank need to see whether the impact sticks, but it says the upcoming fourth quarter consumer price index (CPI) data is key. While inflation is the most backward-looking data there is, it is understandably front and centre of the
RBNZ’s thinking at the moment and over the past year. “CPI data has been the key to forecasts of high interest rates need to go,” the bank’s economists say.
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