Aucklanders lead the way in seeing a bullish housing market

That shift reflects the broader trends in the data over recent months, with some timely monthly housing market data showing prices first stabilising, and then making tentative gains.

The shift in views has been particularly marked in the city of sails, with Aucklanders now equally split on whether prices will fall further or start to recover. It’s not surprising to see Aucklanders more bullish on price prospects than Kiwis elsewhere– Auckland housing market activity has recovered a little bit more swiftly than elsewhere in Godzone, Nathaniel Keall, ASB economist says.

“The shift in interest rate expectations has been equally swift, with another strong reduction in the balance of Kiwis expecting further mortgage lifts. That said, a chunky proportion of Kiwis still expect further lifts (about 50%) and a chunk of the shift in the net balance has come from an increase in the number of folks who expect rates to remain unchanged, rather than fall. We agree with that sentiment – while the RBNZ may have stopped hiking, it will take some time for the Bank to contemplate OCR cuts.”

Keall says Kiwis remain largely split on whether or not now is a ‘good’ time to buy a house. “It’s a tricky environment for many buyers and sellers to navigate. With the market no longer decelerating, the risk of shelling out a load of cash for an asset that quickly declines in value is now less acute. But on the other hand, debt servicing costs remain prohibitive for plenty of prospective buyers and sellers.”