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Maybe ratings do mean something after all?
Wednesday 25th of June 2008
St Laurence’s decision to pull the pin on property lending has surprised many in the industry, including myself.
The company was always regarded as one of the better operators in the market, run by people who were up front and worked on the refreshing ethos of putting the investor first.
That is what was refreshing when talking to St Laurence boss Kevin Podmore last night.
He describes the move as acting early and putting something in place which was good for everyone including investors, staff and the shareholders in his business.
He said, as reported on Good Returns, that hopefully everyone can be paid back and there will even be something left over for the company’s shareholders.
This attitude is in marked contrast to other companies, like Bridgecorp, which seem to be in denial over what has happened and how much damage they have caused people.
Podmore’s comments, when I asked him how does he feel about everything, sums the situation up well.
“It’s a bit of a relief actually,” he said.
Looking at the St Laurence issue with a wider view it is clear that the commercial property/development sector is stuffed and that other finance companies with exposure to it must be suffering too.
Again Podmore’s comments are revealing. He thinks the finance company sector, especially when it comes to property finance, will disappear. Strong words from a man who generally understates everything.
Another issue which I am wondering about is this. None of the companies which are in trouble have a proper rating. Maybe there is something in this? It seems to me some of the companies which have got into trouble could have sought ratings and in doing so that would have fitted their corporate philosophy, however they haven’t done so.
My, early, thoughts are that they didn’t go for ratings because they knew the result wouldn’t be satisfactory?
It’s a thought I am developing some more, but the early conclusion, if I am right, is that maybe ratings do mean something?
Comments (6)
Mike King
The ratings companies - S&P and Moody - have their own reputation in tatters after the very high investment grade ratings they provided to the fatally flawed CDO and MBS issues made some 4 and 5 years ago. Even NZ suffered directly, through the two Generator bond issues, both of which were rated "investment grade" and which are now selling at a 50% discount.
Surely the better protection is provided by either (real) insurance over the loans (viz Compass et al) or strong equity and deep-pocketed shareholders.
Better yet would be the commercial banks to find their "nuts" again - it is their pressured capital positions that is choking the mezzanine lenders who's borrowers cannot re-finance their 2nd mortgages as they had expected to be able to do, mainly due to the banks reneging on prior commitments to take out the expensive lending when specified developmental milestones had been acheived.
BS is right - there will be few finance companies left soon, and the publically raised debenture model is well and truly broken. But the survivors will not be there BECAUSE they have a rating, but because they have strong equity and committed shareholders.
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16 years ago
Tom Watson
Just goes to show that ratings (any ratings!) will not be the "cure all" that govt thinks. they say a week is a long time in politics - looks like its a long time for development funders as well.
Of more concern to me is the downstrean effects of the finance company demises. Whats going to fund retail HP, used cars, industrial plant, etc,. What about the carpenters, plumbers, painters, suppliers as more builders go under?
The irony is that banks created most of the current mess (sub-prime; credit crunch) but are currently getting huge inflows from Mum n Dad investors. No wonder they are scrabbling to issue pref notes/shares to shore up the equity ratios. Who can believe that said banks would be dumb enuff to lend 100% mortgages on overpriced houses. Watch out for their spate of foreclosures on "negative equity" properties in the next few months. Don't see any sign of Govt legislation about bank practises.
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16 years ago
Richard Hurley
The generator Bonds mentioned by majella are still rated By S&P as AA- and are curently trading on the NZX bids at 99.79 and offers at 100.38.
I dont understand the reference to a 50% discount
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16 years ago
Mike King
GTR010 - last sale 30/6/08 5:22 pm @16.5%. With a coupon of 8%, isn't that's a 50% discount? I stand to be corrected.
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16 years ago
Mike King
BS - I know, it wouldn't make sense, but I had referred to the Direct Broking site which quotes last sale at 16.5 and current offer at 12. I believed these to be yeilds. Are they not?
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16 years ago
Murray Weatherston
Time for a bond pricing lesson to clear up the mystery.
GTR010 has an annual coupon of 8.0% p.a - pays interest quarterly = 2.0% per quarter.
Bonds mature 20 August 2008 when last coupon + interest will be repaid.
Bonds are sold on a purchase yield basis - last quote 16% p.a.
Price is found by discounting cashflows by this yield.
These bonds have 46 days to go.
They will pay 1.02 in 46 days.
To get the price that you would have to pay to buy them today, divide 1.02 by (1 + (46/365)*0.16).
In other words what is the present value of $1.02 in 46 days at a 16% p.a. yield.
That's why the price is close to par currently - BS calculation.
Majella, if you double the yield, you do not halve the price.
Easy isn't it.
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16 years ago
2 min read