Bollard likely to keep interest rates on hold this week

All 13 economists surveyed by www.mortgagerates.co.nz expect Bollard to leave his official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5% this week.

Eight of the 13 now think Bollard's first move to raise rates will come in December with three expecting a 25 basis point increase and the other five picking a full 50 points to unwind the "emergency" cut in March after Christchurch's devastating February 22 earthquake.

Two of the remaining economists are picking a hike as early as October while the other three don't expect Bollard to move at all this year.

"The sharp lift in global risks is the key reason the Reserve Bank will refrain from acting," says Christina Leung, an economist at ASB Bank. "Waiting to see if the risks settle down is prudent."