First home buyers making hay, investors MIA

The share of new mortgage lending attributed to FHBs has been running at a historically elevated 24% of the total for almost a year.

Investors, by contrast, are less interested. New investor lending diverged noticeably from that of FHBs in 2022 and has tracked down to about 16% of the total. In absolute terms, it has yet to substantively recover from the lows struck around the start of 2023.

BNZ chief economist Mike Jones says any positive impact on investor demand from the new government’s change in investor tax policies, so far, seems to be being offset by the cash flow hit from high interest rates and soaring insurance, rates, and maintenance bills.

“The anecdote points to investors remaining on the sidelines in the short-term. It’s possible we see a lift in investor selling intentions once the brightline test shifts back to two years in July, but we’d expect this impact to be small.”