House price rises revised upwards

Applying the bank’s forecast for growth in the national house price index to the median sale price implies the median home selling for about $812,000 by Christmas, up from $780,000 currently.

In its latest Property Focus, the ANZ says house prices will rise at their current pace until autumn next year. Chief economist Sharon Zollner says underpinning recent momentum, first-home buyers appear to have re-entered the market after a long hiatus.

However, she doesn’t think recent levels of house price growth will be sustained over the second half of next year, as unemployment rises while interest rates remain high.

“Our outlook is for annual house price inflation to come in at about 5% over next year, then moderate to about 3% in 2025. If upside housing pressures result in upside CPI inflation pressures, the RBNZ is likely to respond with hikes, stopping the housing upswing in its tracks.