House prices could tumble at the same time across the country

The post-pandemic housing cycle has been broad based, with all 14 regions ANZ monitors experiencing annual house price inflation well into the double digits, but now regions now seeing a slowing.

There has been some variance in timing, with some regions now further down the house price inflation mountain than others, says ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner in the bank’s latest Property Focus. 

There has also been some significant variance in the degree of price gains, with the annual lift in Gisborne’s median sale price peaking just above an astonishing 60%  year-on-year in June last year versus a peak just shy of 25% year-on-year in Southland.

Zollner says it’s fair to say all regions are susceptible to further house price falls from here, but provided the labour market holds it together the housing market should be able to achieve a soft landing.