Interest rate focus moves to when next increases start

Bollard's official cash rate (OCR), from which floating mortgage rates and other short-term interest rates are set, stands at 2.5%, the lowest it's ever been, following last month's "emergency" cut from 3% in the wake of Christchurch's devastating earthquake.

All 13 economists surveyed by Good Returns expect Bollard to leave the OCR unchanged with the debate shifting to when he will starting raising the OCR to more normal levels.

Darren Gibbs at Deutsche Bank expects Bollard's comments "will appear slightly more upbeat, if for no other reason that the passage of time means that the statement will dwell less on the destruction in Christchurch and more on the eventual recovery."

However, given the near-term uncertainties surrounding near-term economic performance, Bollard is likely to simply reiterate that future OCR rises will be guided by emerging data, Gibbs says.