Limited house price growth the new normal

In its latest Property Focus the bank claims that while residential consents should improve given population growth, and earthquake rebuilding will provide a further boost to the residential construction sector, affordability and serviceability continue to point to limited scope for price rises.

The Property Focus also includes 10 gauges the bank uses to assess the state of the housing market and to look for signs of emerging trends.

Of the 10 gauges, only one - median rent - points to house price rises, while four suggest falls, four suggest either rises or no movement and one suggests either no movement or price falls.

Affordability, little changed over the past nine months, debt repayment, a fall in borrowing and dwindling migration all suggest price falls.