Migration turnaround likely to underpin housing market

The Department of Labour is predicting annual net migration will go from a net inflow of just below 4,000 people in the year ended June last year to an outflow of about 4,000 in the near term before turning back to a net inflow of about 6,000 in mid to late 2012 and early 2013.

Its research "shows that permanent and long-term migration to and from New Zealand has followed a cyclical pattern over the past 60 years and current patterns are consistent with the long-term trends," Labour and Immigration Research Centre general manager Vasantha Krishnan says.

"Recent trends show we are at a low point in the permanent and long-term migration cycle."

The department's predictions are broadly consistent with those of other economists.