It says NZ's health was never as badly affected by the downturn as to require being admitted to "intensive care" and has relied on "much less, and much less expensive medication" to see it through.

"In this context, Thursday's Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) seems bound to keep signalling the RBNZ has time up its sleeve before any reversal of policy stimulus becomes imperative," it says.

In line with other commentators, the BNZ Capital economists suggest the role of the MPS this week is merely to elaborate on the "steady-she-goes" statements made in October, while avoiding rocking the boat with any statement that could be misconstrued by the markets.

The ASB Business Weekly maintains that the RBNZ will want to keep dampening down expectations of an earlier than stated rate rise and also predicts a continuation of the ‘no change until the second half of 2010' line.

"But the longer the RBNZ sticks to that script in a generally improving environment, the more rapid the eventual shift in stance is likely to be," it warns.

ASB says the strength of the housing market price recovery presents a two-pronged threat to the RBNZ: in the form of inflation and a potential return to excessive borrowing against housing.

This week's ANZ/National Bank Market Focus states there is still enough uncertainty about to keep the RBNZ "steered" towards increasing the Official Cash Rate in the second half of 2010, rather than the first half.

"Our core economic view remains centred around a subdued recovery, but of course this contains the normal caveats which the RBNZ will also be mindful of.

"If there is a surprise to be had in this statement, it may well be that the assessment is more conditional on the medium-term inflation outlook," it says.

The Westpac Weekly Commentary describes the RBNZ as currently in a "sweet spot" in terms of market perceptions.

"So they will be reluctant to abandon this by changing their language dramatically. We think if they can get away with retaining the wording of the October statement, they'll do so," it says.

Westpac again reiterates its borrowing stance: suggesting borrowers should fix at whatever favourable rates are on offer, rather than waiting to see the "whites of the RBNZ's eyes" before fixing.