Rumours of a renewed housing bubble greatly exaggerated
This week's BNZ Capital Markets Outlook states that, like the Reserve (RBNZ), it has its reservations about the longevity of the recent recovery in house prices, particularly in the face of low listing numbers.
"The likely lift in listings through spring, and into the peak sales period of February/March, will constrain price growth, we think," it says.
House prices also remain very high in relation to incomes, it adds.
The Westpac Weekly Commentary offers comments in a similar vein, suggesting that for now the rumours of a renewed housing bubble are "greatly exaggerated".
"The recovery in the housing market in recent months is real but is not, as some have claimed, a resumption of the housing bubble," it says.
Its commentary adds that there is a risk of a renewed bubble, however, if rates are kept low for too long. Westpac continues to suggest borrowers should "seriously consider" fixing now.
The ANZ Market Focus highlights that, like the RBNZ, it sees a protracted recovery ahead for the economy and an "elongated" period of supportive monetary policy. It also suggests the RBNZ is setting the scene to "normalise" monetary policy quickly when the time does come.
Its economists say they are still comfortable with their "out-of-consensus" "W" call on the economy, saying it has pencilled in a second leg of weakness in early 2010, although it may come following the Rugby World Cup. The RBNZ's statement last week validates its long held borrowing strategy and hence it continues to favour floating rates, it says.
Meanwhile, the RBNZ has resigned itself to the "role of spectator", according to the latest ASB Business Weekly report, which says the RBNZ has taken the view that the chances of making a lasting impression on the NZ dollar are not worth the risk of potentially stoking the housing market any further.
It also states that over the last week most interest rates fell, dragged down by the sharp fall in the Australian market. It picks that the next Official Cash Rate move will be up, expecting the RBNZ to hike by June next year.