Regardless of this, it believes there will be little impact on mortgage rates whether the RBNZ cuts or not.

"Deposit rates are unlikely to follow the OCR lower. Furthermore, given the global backdrop long-term rates are more likely to rise than fall over time: any OCR cuts may only temper the pace of increase," it says.

The ANZ Market Focus is holding equally tightly to its view that the OCR is unlikely to see further cuts, suggesting there is only a one-in-five chance of an OCR fall. However, it suggests that should the RBNZ decide to cut, it is likely to be a 50 basis point reduction, rather than 25 basis points. It describes the interest rate curve as caught in a "tug-of-war" between global sentiment and the RBNZ's "on-hold for longer" view.

Meanwhile, Westpac's Weekly Commentary states that the RBNZ struck a "surprisingly dovish chord" in last week's OCR review, suggesting it was more "downbeat" than June's Monetary Policy Statement. There was no acknowledgement of the improving global outlook, or that domestic factors are "setting the stage for recovery", it says.

With much focus on the high NZ dollar in the RBNZ statement, Westpac's central view is that if the market is overestimating the recovery's strength, the NZ dollar will fall by itself; while if the market is right in its recovery assumptions then a strong NZ dollar will not be enough to negate that. It continues to believe that interest rates have bottomed and recommends fixing for six months to one year.

This week's Household Labour Force Survey, due out on Thursday, is unlikely to offer any support to those wanting the RBNZ to lower interest rates further, according to this week's BNZ Capital Markets Outlook. The June Monetary Policy Statement already incorporated the assumption that the unemployment rate would climb to 5.9%, with employment down 1% for the quarter, it says.

It adds that it is worth remembering that for the past six years the unemployment rate has been at levels typically associated with increased inflationary pressure.

"We're not quite sure what the RBNZ is thinking right now, but it used to be accepted that any unemployment rate much below 5% was likely to be inflationary. Accordingly, the level after the hike in June will prove to be only modestly disinflationary," it says.