Reducing hedging boosts returns
The New Zealand dollar fell from US76c to US71c over May, at the same time as global equity markets rose.
AMP, Pathfinder and OneAnswer all reported 6% to 8% increases in their global share funds in the month. Fund managers who maintain a fully currency hedged position rose only up to 2% over the same period.
Over May, $100 invested in Nikko’s Global Equity Fund would have become $101.08, according to Fundsource data. But in its unhedged fund, it would have only turned into $107.90.
John Berry, of Pathfinder, said reducing currency hedging, particularly against the USD, was essential for fund managers in the face of a falling dollar.
“We started the year with an average 60% hedge, reducing to 40% in March and to 27% now. It is widely believed that the NZ dollar could fall further against the US dollar. It is anybody's guess the time frame it will happen in and how far it will go - but the risks point to a weaker kiwi dollar.”
But Mint chief executive Rebecca Thomas said her firm would fully hedge its offshore exposure. “ We retain discretion to vary this but our view is this is a rare occurrence as our skill is in stock picking not picking currencies so we want to protect NZD returns for our local investors."
She said a full hedge made it harder to make money for investors when the dollar was falling but currency was only part of the story as returns were also improving in some offshore markets relative to NZ projected returns.
Fisher Funds chief investment officer Mark Brighouse agreed currency was only one factor in its analysis. “Developed market equities are typically hedged at 50% or less. Emerging market equities tend to have very little hedging or may have some proxy hedging (which means hedging the currencies that have a strong US dollar linkage with some degree of US dollar hedges).”
Berry said advisers were keen for fund managers to take the lead on hedging rather than have to make the decision themselves by deciding whether to put clients into hedged or unhedged funds.
He said advisers should ask their fund managers for a breakdown of returns so they could see what was attributable to hedging and what was because of equity movements.
Adviser Robert Oddy said it was a difficult situation for new investors who wanted to invest offshore. “You could hold off if you really think the Kiwi dollar is going to bounce back up but with the way the New Zealand Government is moving…”
He said clients with no hedging in place had had a tough run while the dollar was strong and that was now turning around. “Equity and bonds should be a long-term investment and it’s starting to work out again for those that have stuck the course.”