[The Wrap] Random thoughts on an indiscriminate virus
Until recently it seemed coronavirus was just something others had to worry about; now it's become real with people not travelling, disruptions to supply chains, markets tumbling and battles for the bog rolls.
Pity the poor fund manager (not that I have ever come across a poor one) trying to make sense of what is going on. Yesterday was a wild ride on the US stock markets and the bull run which started in 2009 is now officially over.
Mind you a few may be poorer than they thought they'd be at the start of the year. With the end of the financial year only weeks away any thought of banking a big fat performance fee for massive outperformance over the year will have well and truly evaperorated.
I looked at my own share portfolio just before and the exceptional returns generated over the past 11 and a bit months have now pretty much all gone.
I'm not too worried and expect at some stage it will be a good time to pick up some bargains.
No doubt financial advisers are getting plenty of calls from clients too. (That won't help with getting things together for a transitional licensing application!)
We are hearing there is plenty of switching going on with KiwiSaver funds too. I know mine is down around $7,000 but again I'm not too worried.
I reckon the passive funds operators are now facing their worst nightmare; explaining 20% losses.
An interesting discussion I had the other day was with a RI manager who noted that funds which take an responsible investing/ESG approach had help up pretty well.
While shares and bonds are not looking to be a particularly comfortable place to park money, those holding property are probably feeling pretty good. If the Reserve Bank follows its peers overseas and cuts the official cash rate we could see even cheaper money available. Home loan rates are already falling here (see the rates table here).
This pandemic is likely to make changes to the way we live our lives in the future. One of those is working remotely. It's something we are well-acquainted with as most of the people who make Good Returns, ASSET and TMM work remotely.
Financial services people do a lot of travelling - I normally meet someone I know at the airport - but that is likely to stop; if it hasn't already. A good example is one of the invited guests for ASSET Magazine's KiwiSaver Round Table has declined the invite due to travel concerns.
All these things will reshape the corporate world too. Stocks like airlines, hotels, travel agents and the like face structural change. Meanwhile, companies like tech firms which support remote working are bound to flourish.
The question I couldn't answer today was this: Where are airlines going to park all these planes no longer flying across the Atlantic and on other routes?