Not many Kiwis think it’s a good time to buy houses

Buyer sentiment has fallen to the lowest level the 26 year history of ASB’s Housing Confidence survey, while at the same time the public has never been more convinced interest rates are going to keep rising.

The quarterly survey to January shows the percentage of kiwis expecting house prices to rise over the coming 12 months fell to a net 49% expecting them to increase. That’s still above average, but it’s well down on last quarter’s net 62%.

ASB senior economist Mike Jones says the direction of travel is clear. Housing confidence is down a sizeable 13% last quarter. “We’d expect further falls ahead now that momentum in NZ’s housing market has convincingly turned.”

Amongst the regions, ASB says it was surprised to see Canterbury record the lowest confidence reading, at a net 42% expecting prices to rise. Canterbury has been bucking the trend of the more general cooling in the housing market; annual house price inflation in the garden city is running at roughly twice that of Auckland and Wellington. At the other end of the spectrum, South Islanders, outside Canterbury, remain the most bullish at +59%, with Auckland at(+52% and the rest of the North Island at +48% somewhere in the middle.