OCR preview survey: Economists divided on tone
Economists who responded to TMM’s OCR Preview Survey unanimously agree there will be “no change” as the central bank outlines its MPS statement next Thursday. The economists say they are between 90%-100% certain.
Next week’s MPS comes off the back of strong inflation figures, largely driven by skyrocketing petrol prices. Economists are divided over whether rising inflation will prompt the bank to adopt a more hawkish tone on the economy, or whether Orr will “look through” the inflation numbers and continue to suggest the OCR could move “up or down”.
Peter Cavanaugh of Bancorp Treasury Services expects the governor to look through inflation numbers. He said: “Expect a slight change to the forecast inflation path to reflect recent rise in tradables inflation (petrol prices) but no significant change to OCR track.”
Annette Beacher of TD Securities said the inflation track would be be lifted, but the OCR profile would “be judgmentally adjusted to remain the same as August”.
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