OCR to stay at record low: Preview Survey
Economists responding to TMM Online’s OCR Preview Survey say there will be no change next week. They said they were between 95 percent to 100 percent certain.
At last month’s MPS announcement, the central bank Governor Adrian Orr indicated stalling growth could lead to a rate cut. But stronger than expected GDP growth figures this week revealed 1 percent growth in the economy in the three months to June, the biggest quarterly rise in two years.
Respondents to our survey, including economists those from UBS, Kiwibank, Infometrics, TD Securities, and ASB, believe the OCR has troughed in the current cycle. Only one respondent, the independent Michael Reddell, expects a further cut to the 1.75 percent rate.
Donal Curtin of Economics NZ said a sharp slowdown in growth between September to December could still lead to an OCR cut, but described the scenario as “unlikely”.
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