Predictions for OCR cut next month

If key data, particularly the 7 August labour data and various inflation expectation measures are weak enough, then a cut could be on the cards.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says every RBNZ meeting from now on will be conceivably ‘live’ and there could be cuts of 75bp by the end of the year. 

Even if there is not a cut next month, the bank expects 25bp OCR cuts in both October and November as core inflation cools for both imported and domestic measures.

“A 25bp cut in November is the bare minimum of what the RBNZ needs to deliver over the rest of the year, Tuffley says.