RBNZ pushes out first OCR cut into 2H 2025
The central bank has also left the door ajar on a potential hike in the OCR later this year.
In its latest monetary policy statement (MPS), RBNZ left its OCR at 5.5% but it is now forecasting that it will peak at 5.7% in the December quarter of this year and raised all its quarterly forecasts thereafter.
In its February MPS, RBNZ had forecast the OCR would be steady at 5.6% through this year and would drop to 5.3% by the June quarter of 2025.
The latest forecasts don't have the OCR falling below 5.5% until the September quarter of 2025 and then only to 5.4%. It expects the OCR to fall to 5.1% by the December quarter of 2025, implying the possibility of two 25 basis point cuts in that quarter.
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