Research: 10 year return forecasts

Markets went through a clear inflection point in the early 1980s, as global inflation and interest rates began to fall sharply. We suspect they are going through another such process at present.

A Golden 15 years for Investors
Investment returns since the early 1980s have been among the highest recorded for any 15 year period. Global equities have returned a compound 14.9 per cent annually since 1983, and global bonds almost 10 per cent pa. New Zealand assets have also performed strongly. Fixed interest has returned 12.9 per cent pa and equities 8 per cent pa, despite falling 65 per cent between 1987-91. Inflation has averaged just 3.6 per cent in the US and 4.4 per cent in New Zealand over the same period.

Three key factors have underpinned these returns: