1. FSLAB will pass virtually as is

Once MPs return from their summer break, you can expect to see the Financial Services Legislation Amendment Bill back on their agenda. So far, there's been widespread (if seemingly a little uninformed) support for the bill from across the House. It seems unlikely there'll be any significant changes in committee stage. FSLAB will probably rocket up the order paper once the code of conduct for financial advisers is signed off by Commerce Minister Kris Faafoi.

2. The code is still to be cracked

Speaking of which, the code working group is due to submit its code of conduct proposal to Faafoi over the next few weeks. You can expect to see some changes from the draft presented to advisers - particularly around the contentious CPD requirement, which, while requiring CPD, gave no guidance as to how much. The issue of systems and processes being able to fill in gaps in advisers' qualifications may also be addressed.

3) Some RFAs will get a shock: Despite the best interests of many, some RFAs are still in the "wait and see" camp. Some will get a nasty surprise if (as expected) the last box-ticking happens quickly and the new regime takes hold before they expect. Licensing, while not an impossible hurdle, may be harder than some small businesspeople expect.

4) Some will drop out: Financial advisers who are near retirement will probably decide to exit the industry rather than go through the process of applying for a full licence by 2021. This will create both opportunities and issues for the industry. Transitional licensing will begin this year.

5) Good dealer groups will rise to prominence: Many advisers will be looking for guidance and assistance with their new compliance obligations. Dealer groups with the strength in numbers and the processes and systems to help will become increasingly important players int he industry.

6) CFP and other pinnacle marks may struggle: Financial Advice NZ's Quality Service Mark kicks off this year. If the association throws its weight behind promoting this to consumers, it may make advisers less interested in pursuing other qualifications to stand out in the market.