TMM - News

Reality difference between numbers of loan applications and people in market

Thursday 7th of December 2023

However, independent economist Tony Alexander's monthly survey of real estate agents says there is no frenzy at the moment.

“There is no blip in the number of agents seeing more first home buyers or investors in the market.

“Buyers are going to have a holiday over the summer and I think they will come back in February with greater thought about buying.”

However, in his Nov survey of mortgage advisers, a net 35% said they were seeing more first home buyers looking for advice. This is a decline from a net 59% in Oct but consistent with the strong results in place since Feb this year.

He says first home buyers have been the key in turning the residential real estate market this year and the mortgage advisers survey shows they remain well engaged – despite extra rises in interest rates recently.

For the third month in a row the number of advisers who said they were seeing more investors seeking advice has increased. The outcome is a net 31% from 24% in Oct.

Three months ago a net 13% were still saying there were fewer investors in the market. “There has been a firm turnaround in investor interest in recent months,” Alexander says.

For those able to get finance, 29% of advisers said banks were becoming more willing to advance funds.

This is consistent with surveys since Feb which showed lenders were slightly and slowly improving lending rules as each month went by, but remained hesitant to make large changes.

Mortgage terms most favoured by borrowers for fixing was 18 months. This is borne out by the latest Reserve Bank data on new lending fully secured by residential mortgages.

In Oct year owner-occupiers were edging towards 18 month terms, with the figures rising to 16.5% from 12.4% in June and a year ago 4.8%.

About 45% of mortgage advisers in Alexander’s survey noted this preference, while  24% said that the one year term was most favoured by their client base and 28% said two years was most favoured. As good as none said borrowers wanted to fix longer than two years.

Mortgage advisers said home loan borrowers explored all fixed term options and were generally flexible on the term, taking into consideration when they thought interest rates may come down.

The Reserve Bank has said it will possibly raise the OCR next year, but financial markets have priced in a drop in interest rates next year, particularly as swap rates are declining.

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