Treasury isn't predicting a large pick up in house prices

The pick up in activity is not just tired up with the Canterbury rebuild.

"Indicators of residential building activity show activity is likely to remain at a low level in the short term," according to the Treasury's advice contained in the economic outlook attached to Finance Minister Bill English's fourth budget.

"Household credit growth is weak and building consents are rising but the level remains low."

"Treasury forecasts assume a large increase in residential investment from the middle of 2012. The pace of activity is forecast to continue to rise, reaching a peak growth rate of over 40% in the year ending March 2014. The level of activity continues to rise for the remainder of the forecast period, but the growth rates slow to 15% in the year ending March 2015 and 5.2% in the year ending March 2016."