Views changing on interest rate moves

The majority are picking that the Reserve Bank will lift the official cash rate between 25 and 50 basis points in December.

"However they are less certain than ever," publisher Philip Macalister says. "Normally economists place a pretty high probability on their predictions, but that has not been the case this time around."

Also recent economic events, particularly in global markets, have forced the economists to change their forecasts made just after the recent OCR announcement.

In the home loan market ASB moved soon after OCR announcement and increased nearly all its fixed rates. Since then it has done a u-turn, and dropped its rates all to positions lower than before the rises.