Who knows where rates are heading?

Yes a great rhetorical question to start the day. We have what BNZ calls "an amazing, perhaps unprecedented, situation in the markets at the moment."

Traders are betting on the OCR falling 44 basis points over the coming months, while the local analysts are, to a person, picking the next move to be a hike, albeit not until early next year.

Then we have Westpac saying "We believe the optimal strategy will be to take a fixed rate well before the Reserve Bank begins increasing the OCR in response to the inflationary pressures of the Christchurch rebuild."

With the recent rumblings down south that rebuild may continue to be on hold.