Investment markets are focused on the impending US "fiscal cliff" but the weak state of US household finances is likely to be an even bigger threat to growth in the world's biggest economy.

Tyndall Monthly Commentary:  Financial markets are back to some of their bad habits, giving them an artificial boost and causing a disconnect with the real economy.  It looks like 2006 all over again.

Tyndall Monthly Commentary:  Food supply problems are likely to slow China's growth rate in the near future but could boost New Zealand's dairy sector and drive our dollar higher.

Tyndall Monthly Commentary: In his monthly commentary London-based economist Andrew Hunt looks at the latest developments in the international markets and questions whether policy makers have got things right.

As we enter the second half of the year, it has become increasingly apparent that much of the optimism that greeted the start of the year, both in the financial markets and in the real sectors has faded, as indeed we suspected that it might.  In particular, we note that the optimism that greeted the European Central Bank's "LTRO" strategy has not so much faded as reversed (in fact, the policy was ill-thought out and may even have been counterproductive in that it allowed the bank runs that have destabilised much of southern Europe to occur) and we would also note that much of the early year improvement in the global real economic data appears to have been due to faulty seasonal adjustment algorithms within the data, rather than to "real events".  The timing of the Global Financial Crisis and the Japanese Earthquake in the first quarters of their respective years has led to the computer-generated seasonal adjustment factors becoming erroneously skewed towards ‘always' producing strong data in the first quarter (at the expense of weaker data in the third quarter). 

Not Just the Fall of a Tall Poppy - JP Morgan and the Fall of the BRICs

What Went Wrong in Europe?

Over recent months, confidence in the global economy has improved markedly on the back of some seemingly more positive economic data from the production side and, in particular, from the various widely watched industrial surveys, such as the influential German Ifo Index.  This improvement in business confidence, coupled with what appears to have been a marked revival in credit growth within the financial markets, has certainly helped asset prices to recover some - or in some cases all - of their lost ground from 2011.

Justifying the Rally

The Outlook for 2012 

Another Euro Summit - November 2011

All Roads Lead to Frankfurt (not Rome) - October 2011

Andrew Hunt looks at what is happening in the global economy, particularly the Euro Zone, and gives his thoughts on what needs to happen in Europe.

If there is one feature that perhaps stands out most within financial and even currency markets at present is the chasm that appears to have opened between the generally robust performance of asset markets and the rather more equivocal performance of the real economy.

Andrew Hunt reports on some fundamental economic changes in the US which have escaped wide-spread attention, but impact on the credit markets. He also suggests a strong Kiwi dollar remains on the horizon.

• In many respects, the bout of volatility experienced in investment markets over the last two months represents a return to more normal market conditions;
• We review these changes in market conditions – and the market realities that are driving them;
• This month's Comment from Tyndall is penned by Andrew Hunt, who is based in London.